The odds, in clear language.
Measured over many rounds, never promised for one. Every figure here comes from the published law.
The law, in three clauses.
The roll
You pay into a round with other people. At close, one external random seed arrives. From it, every entry gets a roll between 0 and 10,000. Low rolls are common, high rolls are rare: the roll is the cube of a uniform draw.
The factor
Your share of the tokens is your pro-rata share, multiplied by a factor between 0 and 2 that depends on how your roll compares with the stake-weighted average roll of the round.
The average
Over many rounds, the average of that factor is 1 for every stake size. In any single round it is not: most entries end slightly below pro-rata, some end well above. The numbers below are measured, not promised.
Most entries end a little under pro-rata and some end well above. Over many rounds the factor averages ×1 at every stake.
!odds in plain words: your share is your pro-rata share times a factor set by how your roll compares with the round's average roll.
Every past scoop, one dot each.
Demo figures, simulated in your browser. Nothing here touches Solana.
See what a draw looks like.
No SOL, no wallet, nothing on Solana. Move a slider and 20,000 rounds run with the published law, in your browser.
Exactly your pro-rata, whatever your stake: the multiplier is linear in your roll, so its mean is 1 by construction.
— of rounds end below pro-rata for you
measured by this run of 20,000 rounds
An estimate from the published law, not a promise · law.ts
Decile by decile.
The mean factor per stake decile over 10,000,000 simulated rounds, with its 95 % interval. Every row should read ×1, within the tolerance of ±0.5 %.
| Stake decile | Mean factor | 95 % interval | Entries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ×0.9995 | ± 0.0001 | 19,863,23719.9 M |
| 2 | ×1.0000 | ± 0.0001 | 20,221,06720.2 M |
| 3 | ×1.0001 | ± 0.0001 | 20,251,23720.3 M |
| 4 | ×1.0000 | ± 0.0001 | 20,270,45920.3 M |
| 5 | ×1.0000 | ± 0.0001 | 20,242,68120.2 M |
| 6 | ×1.0000 | ± 0.0001 | 20,280,16120.3 M |
| 7 | ×1.0001 | ± 0.0001 | 20,182,73820.2 M |
| 8 | ×1.0001 | ± 0.0001 | 20,267,31020.3 M |
| 9 | ×0.9999 | ± 0.0001 | 20,278,99420.3 M |
| 10 | ×1.0000 | ± 0.0001 | 20,184,91320.2 M |
The 95 % interval of each row is in the table on a wider screen.
The words we use.
- round
- About 92 slots, roughly 20 s, during which anyone can pay in at the same price.
- slot
- Solana's unit of time, 217 ms measured; the site counts in slots and estimates seconds.
- seed
- The one random value of a round, delivered by the oracle with a proof.
- roll
- An integer between 0 and 10,000 derived from the seed for each entry; the cube of a uniform draw.
- pro-rata
- The share you would get with no draw at all: your stake divided by the round total.
- curve
- The bonding curve that sells the tokens once per round and buys them back at any time, with zero fee.
- keeper
- Anyone who runs the permissionless steps (seal, request, tally, settle) for a bounty.